Market Size
China Autonomous Last-Mile Delivery Market reached US$4.37 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach US$15.98 billion by 2032, growing with a CAGR of 17.60% during the forecast period 2025-2032.
The China Autonomous Last-Mile Delivery Market showed resilience and upward growth in its early stages, moving from US$3.06 billion in 2022 to US$3.72 billion in 2023.
Autonomous last-mile delivery leverages self-driving vehicles, robots, and drones to optimize logistics and streamline goods transportation with minimal human intervention. In China, it is rapidly transforming the logistics industry, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence, robotics, and 5G connectivity. Companies like JD.com, Meituan, and Alibaba are deploying self-driving delivery robots and drones to enhance efficiency and reduce costs.
According to the State Post Bureau of the People’s Republic of China 2023, as of 2022, China's express delivery volume reached 110.58 billion packages, maintaining its position as the world's largest for nine consecutive years. This growth reflects the nation's booming e-commerce sector and advanced logistics infrastructure. The continuous expansion underscores the increasing demand for efficient delivery solutions.
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Market Scope
| Metrics | Details |
| CAGR | 17.60% |
| Size Available for Years | 2023-2032 |
| Forecast Period | 2025-2032 |
| Market Value | In US$ Billion |
Market Dynamics
Driver - E-commerce growth & changing consumer expectations
China's booming e-commerce market, driven by industry leaders like Alibaba and JD.com, is accelerating the adoption of autonomous last-mile delivery solutions to meet rising consumer expectations for faster and more efficient deliveries.
JD Logistics deployed 700 autonomous delivery robots, including 600 outdoor and 100 indoor units, to enhance last-mile delivery during Singles’ Day 2022. Robot-fulfilled orders surged 300% on November 1 compared to the previous year.
Restraint—High Initial Investment and Operational Costs
The high initial investment and operational costs pose a significant challenge to the scalability and adoption of autonomous last-mile delivery in China. Substantial capital is required for R&D, AI integration, and advanced sensor technology, creating financial barriers for new entrants and limiting market competition.
Additionally, ongoing expenses for maintenance, infrastructure development, and regulatory compliance increase the total cost of ownership, making it difficult to achieve cost efficiency at scale. Traditional human-operated delivery remains more economically viable, reducing the incentive for large-scale investment in automation.
Market Segment Analysis
The China autonomous last-mile delivery market is segmented based on vehicle type, solution, range, and application.
Ground delivery vehicles dominate China’s autonomous last-mile delivery market with a significant share.
The Ground Delivery Vehicles segment grew from US$ 1.14 billion in 2022 to US$ 1.31 billion in 2023, owing to rising adoption in the global market.
Ground delivery vehicles dominate China's autonomous last-mile delivery market, driven by rapid e-commerce expansion, urbanization, and advanced technological infrastructure. Additionally, rising labor costs and increasing demand for contactless deliveries post-pandemic have accelerated the deployment of autonomous ground delivery vehicles. In August 2024, Inceptio Technology delivered 400 autonomous trucks to ZTO Express in China to enhance its logistics network. Developed in partnership with Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, these trucks come pre-installed with Inceptio’s autonomous driving system. The deployment aims to reduce operational costs, improve efficiency, and expand autonomous freight transportation.
AI & Automation Impact Analysis
AI and automation are transforming China's autonomous last-mile delivery market by significantly enhancing efficiency, reducing costs, and enabling scalability. AI-powered delivery robots and autonomous vehicles optimize routes, minimize delays, and lower reliance on human labor, making deliveries faster and more cost-effective. The technology supports the rapid expansion of e-commerce by ensuring seamless logistics, especially in densely populated urban areas.
Alibaba's autonomous delivery robots, Xiaomanlv ("little donkeys"), have delivered over 10 million parcels as of March 31, 2022. Since launching in September 2020, over 500 electric driverless robots have been deployed across Chinese university campuses. Developed by Alibaba’s DAMO Academy, these robots can carry 50 packages per trip and travel 100 km on a single charge. Their success highlights the growing role of AI-powered logistics in China's booming e-commerce sector.
Major Players
The major players in the market include JD.com, Inc., Alibaba, ZTO Express, Meituan, SF Express, Shenzhen Yunwang Wandian, FedEx Express, China Post, DHL Group, and White Rhino and others.
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Target Audience 2024
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